iPhone X Availability; U.S. In-Store 97% on Christmas Day
Conclusion. For the third week in a row, iPhone X supply improved materially for in-store U.S. and remained essentially unchanged online (8 countries). We now believe iPhone X will reach global supply demand equilibrium in mid January. This means the Mar-18 outlook will have a small bump up from December iPhone X demand getting pushed into the Mar-18 quarter. The bigger story is that the Street is underestimating the positive ASP impact from the iPhone X over the next few quarters, which should play out as a positive to the Apple story. Our FY18 overall iPhone ASP is $740 vs. the Street at $705.
Online lead times now globally at 4 days. We noted essentially no change in global iPhone X lead times (8 countries), exiting the week (Dec 25th) at 4 days, compared to 3 days at the beginning of the week. For the week (Dec 18th-Dec 25th) we measured a decline to an average of 5 days, unchanged from an average of 5 days in the previous week (Nov 11th-Dec 17th).
Apple Store availability at 75% up from 44% the previous week and 25% early in December. We continued our daily monitoring of iPhone X availability, capturing 2224 daily in-store data points for 139 of the 271 U.S. Apple retail stores. Availability at U.S. Apple Stores increased to an average of 75% (Dec 18th-Dec 25th) compared to 44% in the previous week (Dec 11th-Dec 17th) and 25% Dec 4th-8th. We saw a dramatic ramp during the week, starting at 56% availability and ending at 97%.
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