iPhone X Availability; U.S. In-Store 96%, Online 3 Days
Conclusion. In the final week of December, average iPhone X supply dramatically increased for the fourth consecutive week to 96% for U.S. Apple in-store and online lead times in 8 countries remained essentially unchanged at 3 days as of Jan 1st. We still believe iPhone X will reach global supply-demand equilibrium in mid-January. This means the Mar-18 outlook will have a small bump up from December iPhone X demand getting pushed into the Mar-18 quarter. The bigger story is that the Street is underestimating the positive ASP impact from the iPhone X over the next few quarters, which should play out as a positive to the Apple story. Our FY18 overall iPhone ASP is $740 vs. the Street at $705.
Online lead times now globally at 3 days as of New Year’s day. We noted essentially no change in global iPhone X lead times (8 countries), exiting the week (Jan 1st) at 3 days, compared to 6 days at the beginning of the week. For the week of Dec 26th-Jan 1st, we measured an average of 5 days compared to an average of 4 days the week of Dec 18th-Dec 25th.
Apple Store availability at 96%, up from 75% the previous week and 44% the second week of December. We continued our daily monitoring of iPhone X availability, capturing 2224 daily in-store data points for 139 of the 271 U.S. We’re approaching 100% U.S. Apple in-store availability, compared to 25% a month ago. Specifically, availability at U.S. Apple Stores increased to an average of 96% for the week of Dec 26-Jan 1st, up from 75% for Dec 18th-Dec 25th, compared to 44% the week of Dec 11th-Dec 17th and 25% the week of Dec 4th-10th.
Disclaimer: We actively write about the themes in which we invest: artificial intelligence, robotics, virtual reality, and augmented reality. From time to time, we will write about companies that are in our portfolio. Content on this site including opinions on specific themes in technology, market estimates, and estimates and commentary regarding publicly traded or private companies is not intended for use in making investment decisions. We hold no obligation to update any of our projections. We express no warranties about any estimates or opinions we make.