iPhone Survey Shows 28% Interest in iPhone X; Positive for ASPs

Gene MunsterSeptember 25, 2017

Intent to upgrade survey shows promise for the iPhone X, and higher ASPs. In addition to surveying consumers in launch lines, we surveyed a broader base of 511 consumers this week regarding their intent to purchase the upcoming iPhones. We found that 23% of respondents intend to purchase a new iPhone within the next year compared to about 25% a year ago. Of that those planning on purchasing an iPhone, 28% are planning to buy the iPhone X, and 40% an iPhone 8 or 8 Plus. We continue to model for 20% of FY18 iPhone units will be iPhone X, given we expect the U.S. to over index to iPhone X. It’s important to note that the most current iPhone typically accounts for 50-60% of overall iPhone unit sales. This survey suggests the most current iPhones will account for 68% of iPhone unit sales. This increases our confidence that ASPs for the iPhone will move higher in FY18. We are modeling for a 6% increase in ASPs in FY18 versus a 1% increase in FY17, and expect our ASP assumption will end up being on the conservative side.

There have been many reports expressing fear that demand for new iPhones is wavering, signaled by low initial sales numbers and short lines for the iPhone 8. However, it must be pointed out that we currently have only partial data. While the release of two devices with slightly different launch dates is unique, the iPhone 8 and iPhone X should be viewed more as a single cycle. Factoring in strong demand for iPhone X and higher ASPs, we believe this cycle will exceed last year’s in both revenue and unit shipments, modeling for iPhone units in FY18 to increase 9% and iPhone revenue to increase by 16%, compared to 3% and 4% in FY17.

Additional Survey Details

Total sample size: 511 U.S. consumers
iPhone 7 users: 87 of 511 (17.0%)
iPhone 6s users: 66 of 511 (12.9%)
iPhone 6 users: 65 of 511 (12.7%)
Other iPhone users: 38 of 511 (7.4%)
Android users: 255 of 511 (49.9%)
Users planning to upgrade iPhone in the next year: 119 of 511 (23.3%)
- Users planning on upgrading to iPhone X: 32 of 116 (27.6%)
- Users planning on upgrading to iPhone 8: 23 of 116 (19.8%)
- Users planning on upgrading to iPhone 8 Plus: 23 of 116 (19.8%)
- Users planning on upgrading to other iPhone: 38 of 116 (32.8%)
More interest in AR: 105 of 503 (20.9%)
Unchanged in AR: 314 of 503 (62.4%)
Less interest in AR: 84 of 503 (16.7%)
18-29 (19.3%)
- iPhone users: 56 of 97 (57.7%)
- Purchasing the next iPhone: 26 of 97 (26.8%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to iPhone X: 8 of 26 (30.8%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to iPhone 8: 5 of 26 (19.2%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to iPhone 8 Plus: 6 of 26 (23.1%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to other iPhone: 7 of 26 (26.9%)
- More interest in AR: 26 of 97 (26.8%)
- Unchanged interest in AR: 59 of 97 (60.8%)
- Less interest in AR: 12 of 97 (12.4%)
30-44 (27.2%)
- iPhone users: 70 of 137 (51.1%)
- Purchasing the next iPhone: 36 of 137 (26.3%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to iPhone X: 9 of 35 (25.7%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to iPhone 8: 9 of 35 (25.7%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to iPhone 8 Plus: 7 of 35 (20.0%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to other iPhone: 10 of 35 (28.6%)
- More interest in AR: 35 of 137 (25.6%)
- Unchanged interest in AR: 80 of 137 (58.3%)
- Less interest in AR: 22 of 137 (16.1%)
45-59 (28.0%)
- iPhone users: 82 of 141 (58.2%)
- Purchasing the next iPhone: 34 of 141 (24.1%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to iPhone X: 9 of 33 (27.3%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to iPhone 8: 4 of 33 (12.1%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to iPhone 8 Plus: 6 of 33 (18.2%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to other iPhone: 14 of 33 (42.4%)
- More interest in AR: 24 of 141 (17.0%)
- Unchanged interest in AR: 91 of 141 (64.5%)
- Less interest in AR: 26 of 141 (18.4%)
60+ (25.5%)
- iPhone users: 48 of 128 (37.5%)
- Purchasing the next iPhone: 21 of 128 (16.4%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to iPhone X: 4 of 20 (20%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to iPhone 8: 5 of 20 (25%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to iPhone 8 Plus: 4 of 20 (20%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to other iPhone: 7 of 20 (35%)
- More interest in AR: 20 of 128 (18.8%)
- Unchanged interest in AR: 84 of 128 (65.6%)
- Less interest in AR: 24 of 128 (18.8%)
Male (46.9%)
- iPhone users: 112 of 236 males (47.5%)
- Purchasing the next iPhone: 50 of 236 (21.2%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to iPhone X: 14 of 49 (28.6%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to iPhone 8: 10 of 49 (20.4%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to iPhone 8 Plus: 10 of 49 (20.4%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to other iPhone: 15 of 49 (30.6%)
- More interest in AR: 58 of 236 (24.6%)
- Unchanged interest in AR: 141 of 236 (59.8%)
- Less interest in AR: 37 of 236 (15.7%)
Female (53.1%)
- iPhone users: 144 of 267 (53.9%)
- Purchasing the next iPhone: 67 of 267 (25.1%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to iPhone X: 16 of 65 (24.6%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to iPhone 8: 13 of 65 (20.0%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to iPhone 8 Plus: 13 of 65 (20.0%)
  - Users planning on upgrading to other iPhone: 23 of 65 (35.4%)
- More interest in AR: 47 of 266 (17.6%)
- Unchanged interest in AR: 173 of 266 (64.8%)
- Less interest in AR: 47 of 266 (17.6%)
Plan to purchase next iPhone 119 of all 511 U.S. consumers (23.3%)
- iPhone users: 91 of 119 (76%)
- More interest in AR: 47 of 105 (40.2%)
- Unchanged interest in AR: 49 of 105 (41.9%)
- Less interest in AR: 21 of 105 (18.0%)
Not planning to purchase next iPhone 392 of all 511 U.S. consumers (76.7%)
- iPhone users: 165 of 392 (42.1%)
- More interest in AR: 58 of 386 (15.0%)
- Unchanged interest in AR: 265 of 386 (68.7%)
- Less interest in AR: 63 of 386 (16.3%)

It’s important to note that demographic information was not available for all respondents. In addition, some respondents did not complete the survey. For example, 119 out of 456 respondents shared that they intend to upgrade their iPhone in the next year, but only 116 specified their decision further.

Disclaimer: We actively write about the themes in which we invest: artificial intelligence, robotics, virtual reality, and augmented reality. From time to time, we will write about companies that are in our portfolio. Content on this site including opinions on specific themes in technology, market estimates, and estimates and commentary regarding publicly traded or private companies is not intended for use in making investment decisions. We hold no obligation to update any of our projections. We express no warranties about any estimates or opinions we make.