Apple Supplier Experiences Delay, but Believe iPhone Launch Unaffected

Special thanks to Austin Bohlig for his work on this note. 

We have updated comments regarding the upcoming iPhone launch following Finisar’s (FNSR) FQ1 earnings results, which we believe is one of Apple’s VCSEL array suppliers. Vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers (VCSEL) are a key technology that adds 3D sensing capabilities and enables advanced augmented reality applications.

Finisar VCSEL Array.  Source: Laser Diode Source

What They Said. Finisar reported Jul-17 results today after the bell, and while they talked up the opportunity of VCSEL array demand from one of their customers (aka Apple), the company experienced a delay in customer approval for their VCSEL production units. Due to the delay, Finisar was forced to push out production shipments to Oct-17. That said, the company anticipates this problem will be solved by the end of Oct-17, and to begin shipping much larger quantities in Jan-18 and following quarters. Finisar expects VCSEL revenue to be in the low-single-digit millions in Oct-18, but believe sales can grow to “tens of millions” of dollars per quarter beginning in Jan-18 and beyond, which is in-line with management’s previous comments. We do want to highlight, the company indicated they do not expect revenues to be in the “hundreds of millions” per quarter, but once they are at full capacity they will see revenues reaching $30M.

We also would like to point out that Finisar and other VCSEL array suppliers continue to talk about one customer (Apple) driving demand for VCSEL arrays. We believe Apple has secured a high percentage of all VCSEL lasers created, which we view as a large competitive advantage that will make Apple a leading AR player in the smartphone space.

What This Means For Apple? If Finisar can resolve this problem in the upcoming quarter, we do not believe this will not affect the iPhone launch. Lumentum, which we believe is supplying Apple with 75 – 80% of their VCSEL arrays, announced a $200M order last quarter (more from us here). With Lumentum shipping everything they can produce, we believe Apple will have a sufficient supply of VCSEL arrays to support initial demand for the iPhone incorporating this technology. However, given how capacity constrained Lumentum is for VCSEL arrays, if Finisar issues extend beyond Oct-17, we do believe it could delay iPhone orders.

We continue to anticipate the iPhone Pro being the only phone incorporating these advanced VCSEL arrays for 3D sensing that will enable augmented reality applications. We expect Apple to ship 133M units in the back half of CY17, of which, 43% will incorporate 3D sensing. Looking into 2018, we believe Apple will ship a total of 239M iPhones and 67% of them will include 3D sensing capabilities.

Disclaimer: We actively write about the themes in which we invest: artificial intelligence, robotics, virtual reality, and augmented reality. From time to time, we will write about companies that are in our portfolio. Content on this site including opinions on specific themes in technology, market estimates, and estimates and commentary regarding publicly traded or private companies is not intended for use in making investment decisions. We hold no obligation to update any of our projections. We express no warranties about any estimates or opinions we make.

Beware of the Legislative Slow Hand as Self Drive Act Inches Forward

Yesterday, the U.S. House of Representatives passed proposed legislation that would make it easier for companies to test self-driving cars on the roads. The new rules would add as many as 100,000 autonomous test vehicles to U.S. roads every year, compared to less than 500 today. Our guess is that the Senate will also approve the “Self Drive Act” and and it will become law by year end.  That’s good news, but it doesn’t change the likelihood that lawmakers will be the biggest roadblock to autonomous adoption.

The big picture. Taking a step back, the impact of autonomy will be widespread including trucking, ride sharing, insurance, entertainment, energy companies, auto part suppliers, parking lots and even fast food (fewer impulse tacos once you’re no longer in control of your ride).

The gap between testing and adoption. Make no mistake, the passing of the Self Drive Act is essential to advancing a paradigm shift in transportation, but the transition to a world of autonomy will take longer than the five years that many tech observers expect. And the biggest risk to the timing of self-driving adoption isn’t tech, but lawmakers’ aversion to risk, and the inevitable slow hand in making autonomous cars street legal. You can see it now, federal and state lawmakers feverishly debating AI mortality around a car’s crash path, overlooking undeniable evidence that human error causes more than 90% of accidents and machines can reduce that risk.

They’ll come around. While lawmakers will slow the adoption of self-driving vehicles, they’ll eventually come around because of all the reasons why the Self Drive Act moved forward today, because the world will be a better, safer place with self-driving cars.

Disclaimer: We actively write about the themes in which we invest: artificial intelligence, robotics, virtual reality, and augmented reality. From time to time, we will write about companies that are in our portfolio. Content on this site including opinions on specific themes in technology, market estimates, and estimates and commentary regarding publicly traded or private companies is not intended for use in making investment decisions. We hold no obligation to update any of our projections. We express no warranties about any estimates or opinions we make.

Auto Outlook 2040: The Rise of Fully Autonomous Vehicles

Special thanks to Austin Bohlig for his work on this note. 

Today, we are introducing our 2040 Automotive Model, available here, detailing our projections for electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, and fleet services through 2040.

The global automotive industry is quickly approaching a transformation that should fully take shape by 2040. While 20 years doesn’t seem very far away, keep in mind that technology is advancing at an accelerating pace — the next 20 years of innovation will see changes equivalent to what we’ve seen over the last 50 years. We expect to see three major automotive themes emerge: 1) the transition to electric, 2) fully autonomous vehicles, and 3) a higher percentage of people relying on ride sharing services as their primary source of transportation. We believe these three themes will create enormous market opportunities. While some of the traditional auto players will capitalize on these emerging themes, the competitive landscape will change dramatically as more technology companies enter the space to bring these revolutionary technologies to market.

Theme #1 – Transition to Electric

According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 84.0M new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles were sold globally in 2016, up ~5% y/y. Of all vehicles sold, 81.5M were internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, 2.0M were hybrid, and 440K were electric. While electric vehicles only accounted for <1% of new vehicles shipped in 2016, this segment of the market has seen tremendous growth over the past 4 years, and we believe we are nearing an infection point for demand of electric vehicles. By 2033, we believe electric vehicles will surpass 50% of total market share. By 2040, we believe 86% (87.9M) of new cars sold will be electric vehicles; from 2020 – 2040 the electric category will experience an ~18% unit CAGR, while ICE vehicles will decline ~13% over that same time period.

Over the next 20 years, electric vehicles will become more affordable, but due to the advanced sensors, onboarding computing processors, and other components that will enable fully autonomous driving capabilities, we expect electric car ASPs to increase modestly. That said, in order for ICE and hybrid vehicles to compete, these categories will see prices steadily decline. In 2040, we believe the global passenger and light vehicle automobile market will represent a $3.8T annual market opportunity, up from $2.9T in 2016. The bulk of the growth will be driven by electric vehicle demand, which we anticipate to increase from $20B in 2016 to $3.4T in 2040, representing a ~18% CAGR.

While affordability will be a meaningful catalyst to electric car adoption, there will be multiple additional catalysts driving the shift to electric vehicles:

  • OEMs Focus Towards Electric – Today, and for the next 20 years, we believe the leading electric car OEM will be Tesla, but we anticipate almost all other traditional car manufacturers will eventually switch their focus to electric vehicles. Volvo was one of the first to do so, and recently announced all new cars they manufacture will be electric or hybrid starting in 2019. We anticipate other OEMs to make similar announcements in the coming years, providing additional tailwinds to the industry.
  • Government Intervention – We believe we will see legislation over the next 5 – 10 years enticing consumers to buy electric vehicles through subsidies; gas powered vehicles may even from the road. France and Britain plan to ban the sale of gas and diesel vehicles beginning in 2040. Scotland recently announced similar plans but with an implementation date of 2032. While this may seem extreme, it’s not unprecedented, even in the US: In the early 1900s, when the Model T began shipping in volume, the government banned horses from operating on the same public roads as automobiles.
  • Transition To Fully Autonomous – Although autonomous cars can take the form of ICE or hybrid vehicles, the majority of autonomous vehicles deployed will be electric cars because there are many synergies between the technology implemented in electric vehicles and what will be incorporated in fully autonomous systems. In addition, given our thesis that most car OEMs will switch their focus to electric, it only makes sense autonomous cars will follow suit.

Theme #2 – The Rise of Self-Driving Vehicles

Today, 99.9% of all passenger and light commercial vehicles on the road have little to no automation capabilities. However, Tesla and a few additional OEMs have made great strides in introducing what the industry classifies as Level 2 (Partial Automation). By 2040, we expect that over 90% of all vehicles sold will be “Highly” and “Fully” autonomous systems, classified as Level 4 and 5 automation, respectively. Here’s a brief definition of the different forms of automation according the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA):

  • Level 0: No Automation – A human controls all the critical driving functions.
  • Level 1: Driver Assistance – The vehicle can perform some driving function, often with a single feature such as cruise control, but the driver maintains control of the vehicle.
  • Level 2: Partial Automation – The car can perform one or more driving tasks at the same time, including steering and accelerating, but still requires the driver remain alert and in control.
  • Level 3: Conditional Automation – The car drives itself under certain conditions, but requires the human to intervene upon request with sufficient time to respond, but the driver isn’t expected to constantly remain alert.
  • Level 4: High Automation – The car performs all critical driving tasks, monitors roadway conditions the entire trip, and doesn’t require the human to intervene. But self-driving is limited to certain driving locations and environments.
  • Level 5: Full Automation – The car drives itself from departure to destination, and the human is completely removed from the process.

This will not be a gradual transition from one level to the next; we expect most players to skip Level 3, going straight from Partial Automation to High or Full Automation. We also view Level 4 and 5 as very similar levels of automation; Level 4 has a steering wheel but Level 5 does not. So, in our forecast we combine Level 4 and Level 5 into one category labeled “Fully Autonomous.”

Self-Driving Car Rollout Begins in 2020, Inflects in 2028

We estimate that ~130K Level 2 vehicles will be sold in 2017; over the next few years, the industry will see a significant acceleration of Level 2 vehicles delivered, occupying a growing percentage of new vehicles sold through 2033. However, we believe 98K Fully Autonomous vehicles (Level 4 and 5) will enter the market in 2020, which is when the transition to self-driving will start to take shape. While some Level 1 and 2 systems will still be sold in 2040, the two groups combined will account for <6% of all new vehicles delivered, and >94% of systems will take the form of fully automated vehicles. It will take time for fully automated vehicles to gain meaningful traction, largely due to legislative hurdles, but beginning in 2028 we believe the industry will see an influx in demand for Level 4 and 5 automobiles. We expect the industry will go from shipping 98K Fully Autonomous vehicles in 2020 to 96.3M in 2040, representing a 41.2% CAGR over that time frame.

Leaders in Autonomy

While there will be many companies that will benefit from the transition to fully autonomous vehicles, a few companies are already positioning themselves to be early key players:

  • Tesla – Tesla has already established their dominance in the electric vehicle market, and we expect their commanding market position to prevail through 2040. We estimate that Tesla currently controls ~20% of the global electric vehicle market, and although we anticipate competition to increase in the years to come, we believe Tesla can maintain low-to-mid teens market share through 2040. Almost all Teslas today incorporate Level 2 driving automation, and while Tesla is hoping to get fully autonomous cars on the road by 2019, we believe their near-term focus will be ramping production of the Model 3 and less on getting fully autonomous cars on the road. That said, we view Tesla’s leadership around autonomous driving technology and AI is a step up from almost everyone else, and expect larger deployments to begin in 2020.
  • Waymo – It is still not completely clear what Waymo’s go-to-market strategy will be with regards to autonomous cars, but the company will have a meaningful presence. Waymo’s biggest competitive advantage thus far is the millions of miles their self-driving cars have driven and the terabytes of data gathered, which they can use to train their self-driving car algos. Waymo has already launched a ride sharing service in Phoenix, AZ, and we wouldn’t be surprised if they sell a Waymo branded self-driving car or develop a self-driving car OS that they license to third party car OEMs.
  • Traditional OEMs – It will be a significant challenge for traditional car OEMs to compete as we transition to electric and full autonomy, but there will be some legacy car brands that effectively transition by leveraging decades of car manufacturing expertise to compete with Tesla and Waymo. Ford is one traditional car company that has begun the transition, including promoting a CEO with deep autonomous experience and acquiring leading startups in the space (Argo). While some of these traditional car companies will be able to develop self-driving systems internally, we believe the more effective way will be to enter the space via acquisition.
  • Start-Ups & Others – The self-driving car industry is still in the very early innings, and other tech giants such as Apple, Uber, Lyft, and relatively unknown startups will deliver meaningful innovation. There are many technological gaps that still need to be solved before self-driving cars are fully deployed on public roads.
  • Apple – We continue to expect Apple to play in the self-driving car market, possibly bringing a self-driving car to market, or, more likely, developing an autonomous system for self-driving cars. We’ll cover this with more detail in a future note.

Theme #3 – Transition to Ride Sharing Services

In addition to the world transitioning to electric and autonomous vehicles over the next 20 years, we expect an increasing number of consumers will forgo owning a car and rely fully on ride sharing services for transportation. While we anticipate the number of cars sold will continue to increase through 2040, many of these new cars will go directly towards ride sharing services.

We estimate there were 1.3B passenger and light vehicle cars in use in 2016, of which 5% were dedicated to ride sharing services. In the coming decades, as ride sharing becomes more cost effective and reliable, the percentage of cars dedicated to ride sharing services will increase steadily. By 2040, we estimate that 68% of all vehicles in use will be dedicated to fleet services. As a result, the number of cars personally owned by individuals will decrease at a -2.0% CAGR from 2020 to 2040. Today, companies such as Uber and Lyft dominate the ride sharing market, but we anticipate other leading tech companies (Tesla, Waymo, etc.) and traditional car OEMs to introduce a ride sharing services as well. We also envision a future where individuals that own an autonomous car are able to deploy the system to a fleet service when they are not using the car (e.g., while at work), extracting value from the car’s dormancy.

Bottom Line

The global automotive industry is quickly approaching a paradigm shift, and the types of vehicles on our roads and the competitive landscape in the car market is going to change significantly by 2040. Level 1 and 2 automated vehicles will still be sold, we estimate that >94% of new cars sold will be fully automated in 2040. Some of the traditional auto players will successfully transition to these emerging themes, but several tech companies are most likely to become leaders in the space. Over the next several decades, the biggest headwinds to full autonomy will likely be legislative rather than technical, but the safety and efficiency benefits of autonomous cars will provide a strong tailwind to broad public acceptance and rapid market growth.

Disclaimer: We actively write about the themes in which we invest: artificial intelligence, robotics, virtual reality, and augmented reality. From time to time, we will write about companies that are in our portfolio. Content on this site including opinions on specific themes in technology, market estimates, and estimates and commentary regarding publicly traded or private companies is not intended for use in making investment decisions. We hold no obligation to update any of our projections. We express no warranties about any estimates or opinions we make.

Apple Event Preview

We don’t expect many surprises at Apple’s September 12th event (see our expectations detailed below). That said, the event will mark an important new chapter for Apple centered on augmented reality, which will eventually replace the smartphone over the next decade. Give credit to Apple for overcoming the innovator’s dilemma and pointing their product roadmap toward the future.

Expect Investor Optimism to Be Tempered with Concern Near Term. Over the past year, investors have been anticipating a shift in the iPhone growth from flatfish in FY17 to high single digits in FY18 (we’re modeling for 8% iPhone unit growth in FY18).  Shares of AAPL have risen 54% during that time driven by this improved iPhone growth outlook along with a more optimistic view that Services growth will be sustainable in the 15-20% range through 2020. For the balance of 2017, we expect history to repeat itself and optimism around the next iPhone to be tempered with concern about the iPhone cycle’s tail, specifically wavering investor confidence in iPhone growth in the Mar-18 and Jun-18 quarters (iPhone cycles are made or broken in the March & June quarters).

Don’t Let Short-Term Distractions Minimize the Long-Term Apple Story. Despite near term shifts in investor optimism, we remain positive on Apple’s story long-term. Over the next year, we expect to see two camps emerge on the Apple story: The first camp will remain positive on Apple despite little to no iPhone growth over the next few years if Services meets Cook’s goal of y/y growth in the high teens. The second camp will be more pragmatic, wanting to see Apple make a push into AR & auto to set the stage for higher growth over the next decade.  We remain optimistic that Apple will be a significant player in the shift to AR-driven computing with potential growth from Apple’s car project representing option value.

image source: iDrop News

Our Expectations for Sept. 12th
  • iPhone and iPhone Plus. We expect updates to the iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus, traditionally the S-branded models, but we think they will be called simply “iPhone” and “iPhone Plus,” in keeping with both the iPad and MacBook lineups.
  • iPhone Pro. In addition to the typical iPhone updates, we expect a Pro model this year, with a level of innovation (and price) that we have not seen from Apple’s iPhone line in recent years. With an edge-to-edge display, no home button (instead using facial recognition for unlocking), advanced AR-related sensors and cameras, and potentially wireless charging, the iPhone Pro will be the biggest step forward in iPhone technology that we’ve seen since the original device launched ten years ago. Per the mockup above, we expect the iPhone Pro’s screen to be 5.8″ – larger than that of the iPhone 7 Plus (5.5″) but housed in a smaller form factor. This design feat is accomplished by, among other feats, removing the home button in favor of a software-based home button and navigation interface and facial recognition technology for unlocking the device. The new floating dock in iOS 11 also seems to hint at major changes to the navigation and control of apps and the iPhone home screen. One quibble with almost every mockup of the new iPhone: We don’t think Apple will allow developers to use the screen real estate to the left and right of the front speaker and cameras for content. We think that real estate will be dedicated to the menu bar with a black background. Finally, we expect the iPhone Pro to be capable of inductive charging and come with new cameras and 3D sensing capabilities for new augmented reality applications.
  • Augmented Reality Capabilities. While the new hardware will draw the most attention, the most significant change with long-term implications is the addition of 3D sensing capabilities that enable augmented reality applications (also likely to be included on new iPhone and iPhone Plus models). While AR applications will be backward compatible to the 2015 iPhone 6s, the addition of designated 3D and computer vision hardware on the iPhone Pro would be a big step toward putting AR in the hands of everyday users. It would also a big step toward the next generation of computing – beyond the smartphone.
  • Apple TV. Recent rumors point to the possibility of Apple announcing an updated Apple TV with support for 4K video, which wouldn’t surprise us.
  • Apple Watch. Other rumors suggest Apple may introduce Apple Watch Series 3 with the option of LTE connectivity, which would surprise us a bit.
  • Apple Campus 2. The new product we’re most excited to see on Sept. 12th is the Steve Jobs Theater. Apple’s new campus was, in many ways, Steve’s last product – one that captures his legacy and the impact he’s had on the world. We’re eager to see how Apple honors Steve at the event.
Apple suppliers may offer insight into iPhone capabilities. Finisar reports earnings on Sept. 7th. We believe they are 1 of possibly 3 companies supplying VCSEL lasers to Apple, enabling 3D sensing capabilities on the iPhone. Lumentum, which we believe is the largest VCSEL supplier, announced a $200M order last quarter (more from us here), which we believe went mostly to Apple. We expect Finisar to comment on VCSEL laser demand, which will give us incremental color on the number of new iPhones that will incorporate 3D sensing. To date, we believe advanced 3D sensing capabilities will primarily be incorporated in the iPhone Pro, but given the large order Lumentum announced, the technology could be incorporated into the iPhone and iPhone Plus models as well.
Disclaimer: We actively write about the themes in which we invest: artificial intelligence, robotics, virtual reality, and augmented reality. From time to time, we will write about companies that are in our portfolio. Content on this site including opinions on specific themes in technology, market estimates, and estimates and commentary regarding publicly traded or private companies is not intended for use in making investment decisions. We hold no obligation to update any of our projections. We express no warranties about any estimates or opinions we make.

The Consortium Conundrum & the Race for Autonomous Driving

The ambitious and multifaceted endeavor that is fully autonomous driving seems simply too large a task for one company to undertake. In the race for autonomy, automakers, software experts, hardware manufacturers, and ridesharing companies are turning to each other in an effort to expedite their collective progress on the matter.

Foregoing traditional practice and the opportunity for market dominance, several companies are hoping their combined efforts will bring them further than they could get on their own. Bringing a self-driving car to market not only poses many technical challenges, but it will involve a cultural shift in the way humans are transported and how they interact with machines every day. Such an unprecedented project has spurred unprecedented relationships that involve everything from young and nimble tech startups to century-old auto manufacturers coming together. These strategic partnerships present a challenging conundrum.

Lay of the land. The web of players banding together to tackle autonomy is tangled. In the interest of brevity, here is a list of some of the more significant partnerships:

  • The Open AutoDrive Forum attempts to act as an open dialogue to standardize the area of autonomous driving with participation from over 60 companies across auto, software, mapping, ridesharing, hardware, and education.
  • BMW, Intel (and Mobileye), Fiat Chrysler, and Delphi have partnered to establish an industry standard for self-driving fleets and hope to bring vehicles to market by 2021.
  • Fiat Chrysler is also working with Waymo to develop autonomous vans based on their Pacifica model.
  • Waymo partnered with Avis to augment their fleet service capabilities.
  • Uber has announced partnerships with Daimler, Volvo, GM, Didi Chuxing, and Toyota.
  • Waymo and Lyft have entered into an arrangement.
  • Jaguar Land Rover is investing $25 million in Lyft to fund autonomous vehicle activities.
  • Intel, Toyota, Ericsson, and Nippon Telegraph & Telephone have formed what is called the Automotive Edge Computing Consortium to develop the technology for an ecosystem of connected cars.
  • HERE mapping, a 3D mapping initiative, is owned by a consortium of companies including German automotive companies BMW, Daimler, and Audi, along with now Intel and Tencent.
  • There have also been several other groups arising that include Nvidia, LiDAR company Velodyne, and auto engineering firm Bosch.

Where a consortium makes sense. In an area of commodity technology like wi-fi or Bluetooth, industry standards make certain that a rising tide lifts all boats and the collective group benefits from cooperation more than each could on its own. This concept manifests itself in bodies like the Wi-Fi Alliance and the Bluetooth Special Interest Group. This model can sometimes be an effective way to implement standards that encourage broadly adopted technology and safety, and bolster more substantial relationships with the government. For example, vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication is one area in which a consortium could be effective. ‘Out-communicating’ your rivals does not afford you an edge, so competition for this technology does not make sense – the higher goal is safety. Cooperation on building and implementing the best system possible would benefit all companies and, most importantly, consumers.

But partnering up is usually inefficient. Innovation feeds off of competition. Great competitors play offense to attack their rivals. Partnerships that bring entities together inorganically, often out of obligation, typically play defense. While sharing technology, patents, or engineering talent may create synergies or expedite the time to market on paper, it often creates a clash of competing interests, muddled accountability, and a diminished sense of urgency. In an area of intense competition, like building an autonomous vehicle for public roadways, small differences in technology can create large gaps in capability and time to market. This is an area in which a consortium would be ineffective. Although a strategic partnership may bring together certain components of the system (e.g., an automaker, a chipmaker, a software company, or a ridesharing network), the group’s combined efforts cannot match those of a single, capable entity on a clear mission. We believe the most effective player is one who can quickly deploy resources at scale and one that is nimble enough to react quickly and decisively in the highly dynamic field of autonomy. For instance, General Motors may not have the balance sheet (mkt cap $51B) or the knowledge to spend $5 billion on a battery factory, but could most likely garner the necessary insights via a strategic partnership.  Even so, due to their image as a traditional automaker and their adherence to the status quo, it is unlikely that they could raise or deploy the funds necessary to do so. On the other hand, Tesla has effectively been given an open checkbook from their investors to pursue new manufacturing paradigms, battery production, and autonomy.

A history lesson. It’s a challenge to find examples of strategic partnerships that have yielded revolutionary innovation. In fact, Peter Simoons suggests that 80% of ad hoc partnerships fail outright. If history repeats itself, the countless companies collaborating on autonomy may form solid organizations, but true innovation will evade them.

Shared Mission. A couple of years ago Tesla found that about 15% of Model S vehicles were making a strange noise when the car hit 17 mph. On a Saturday morning, Musk gathered the Tesla motor design team along with a group from SpaceX. He instructed the team to fix the issue by Monday, setting into motion what’s known inside of Tesla as “heroics.” By Monday the problem was solved. Having Tesla and SpaceX working together to solve a problem may sound like a strategic partnership, but it’s decisively different. Most SpaceX and Tesla employees believe they work for Musk, and walk through walls to inch towards his goals. It’s a lack of this type of shared mission that causes consortiums to stumble.

Disclaimer: We actively write about the themes in which we invest: artificial intelligence, robotics, virtual reality, and augmented reality. From time to time, we will write about companies that are in our portfolio. Content on this site including opinions on specific themes in technology, market estimates, and estimates and commentary regarding publicly traded or private companies is not intended for use in making investment decisions. We hold no obligation to update any of our projections. We express no warranties about any estimates or opinions we make.