iPhone X Availability; U.S. In-Store 96%, Online 3 Days

Conclusion. In the final week of December, average iPhone X supply dramatically increased for the fourth consecutive week to 96% for U.S. Apple in-store and online lead times in 8 countries remained essentially unchanged at 3 days as of Jan 1st. We still believe iPhone X will reach global supply-demand equilibrium in mid-January. This means the Mar-18 outlook will have a small bump up from December iPhone X demand getting pushed into the Mar-18 quarter. The bigger story is that the Street is underestimating the positive ASP impact from the iPhone X over the next few quarters, which should play out as a positive to the Apple story. Our FY18 overall iPhone ASP is $740 vs. the Street at $705.

Online lead times now globally at 3 days as of New Year’s day. We noted essentially no change in global iPhone X lead times (8 countries), exiting the week (Jan 1st) at 3 days, compared to 6 days at the beginning of the week. For the week of Dec 26th-Jan 1st, we measured an average of 5 days compared to an average of 4 days the week of Dec 18th-Dec 25th.

Apple Store availability at 96%, up from 75% the previous week and 44% the second week of December. We continued our daily monitoring of iPhone X availability, capturing 2224 daily in-store data points for 139 of the 271 U.S. We’re approaching 100% U.S. Apple in-store availability, compared to 25% a month ago. Specifically, availability at U.S. Apple Stores increased to an average of 96% for the week of Dec 26-Jan 1st, up from 75% for Dec 18th-Dec 25th, compared to 44% the week of Dec 11th-Dec 17th and 25% the week of Dec 4th-10th.

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