Conclusion. iPhone X supply improved materially over the past week both in-store and online. We now believe iPhone X will be near global supply demand equilibrium by the end of December or early January. Previously, we had anticipated iPhone X would reach global supply demand equilibrium by mid- to late-January.  This means the Mar-18 outlook will have only a fractional bump up from December iPhone X demand getting pushed in the Mar-18 quarter. We believe the bigger story is that the Street is under estimating the positive ASP impact from the iPhone X over the next few quarters, which should play out as a positive to the Apple story. Our FY18 overall iPhone ASP is $740 vs. the Street at $705.

Online lead times continue to improve. We noted an improvement in global iPhone X lead times (8 countries), exiting the week (Dec 10th) at 4 days, down from 8 days at the beginning of the week. For the week (Dec 4th-Dec 10th) we measured a decline to an average of 7 days, compared to an average of 10.1 days in the previous week (Nov 27th-Dec 3rd).

Apple Store availability jumps. We continued our daily monitoring of iPhone X availability, capturing 2224 daily in-store data points for 139 of the 271 U.S. Apple retail stores. Availability at U.S. Apple Stores increased to an average of 25% (Dec 4th-Dec 8th) compared to 7% in the previous week (27th-Dec 3rd). We saw a dramatic ramp during the week, starting at 6% availability and ending at 48%. It’s worth noting that on Friday, AT&T and Verizon showed 72% availability, and Sprint and T-Mobile showed 26% availability. Adjusting for market share by carrier (AT&T and Verizon have about 67% of the U.S. share), the effective in-store availability on Friday was 57%.

Disclaimer: We actively write about the themes in which we invest: artificial intelligence, robotics, virtual reality, and augmented reality. From time to time, we will write about companies that are in our portfolio.  Content on this site including opinions on specific themes in technology, market estimates, and estimates and commentary regarding publicly traded or private companies is not intended for use in making investment decisions. We hold no obligation to update any of our projections. We express no warranties about any estimates or opinions we make.